CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-09-28T09:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-09-28T09:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41455/-1
CME Note: Somewhat asymmetrical CME directed eastward in all 3 coronagraphs (SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1). It has a clear follow-up front, best seen in CCOR-1. Its source is likely the impulsive M6.4 flare from AR 14232 (N03E59) seen in GOES-Secondary X-ray flux timeline (eclipsed in GOES-Primary) and with the associated significant fan-like filament/prominence eruption seen off/behind the SE limb in STEREO A EUV 304 and close to the limb in GOES SUVI 304 starting at 2025-09-28T08:45Z. There is also a minor brightening and a very minor opening of field lines near the E limb in GOES SUVI 195.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-01T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41459/1 Model Inputs: 2025-09-28T09:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-66.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=1163.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2025-09-28T11:41Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-01T00:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-29T01:26Z Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-29T03:46Z OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-30T20:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250928_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 55.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-09-28T16:12Z
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